How Long Will My Pension Pot Last?
Reviewed 19 May 2026. Uses current UK pension access notes and simplified drawdown assumptions. Real retirement income depends on tax, markets, inflation and timing.
A pension pot does not run down in a neat straight line. How long it lasts depends on withdrawals, investment returns, inflation, fees, tax and ; crucially ; the order in which good and bad markets arrive.
The three numbers that matter most
- Pot size: how much you start with.
- Withdrawal amount: how much you take each year or month.
- Growth rate: what the remaining pot earns after costs and market movement.
Why the first retirement years are dangerous
If markets fall early in retirement while you are taking withdrawals, the pot can be damaged more severely than if the same fall happens later. This is called sequence risk. A simple calculator cannot fully model it, but it can show how sensitive the result is to different return assumptions.
Tax matters too
Many people can usually take up to 25% of a defined contribution pension as tax-free cash, subject to rules and allowances. The rest is generally taxable as income when withdrawn. This means a gross withdrawal is not the same as spendable income.
Access age matters
The normal minimum pension age is currently 55 for many people and is due to rise to 57 from 6 April 2028, with some protections and exceptions. This matters if you are trying to bridge the gap between early retirement and State Pension age.
Run pessimistic, moderate and optimistic assumptions. If the plan only works in the optimistic version, it is probably too fragile.
Use the calculator
The Drawdown Calculator lets you test withdrawal amounts, return assumptions and pot size. Use the Retirement Calculator if you are still building the pot.
Related guides
Sources and useful reading
Common questions
Questions worth thinking through before you rely on a drawdown plan.
How much can I safely withdraw from my pension?
There is no universally safe number. It depends on age, investment mix, market returns, inflation, tax and whether you need the money to last for life.
Does the drawdown calculator include tax?
The current drawdown calculator is a simplified projection. It does not fully model personal tax, fees, inflation or sequence risk.
Can my pension run out?
Yes, if withdrawals are too high relative to pot size and returns. That is why testing several scenarios is useful.